Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India

Relative performance of Market Indices

 

NSE Nifty 50

11 January 2017
Nifty is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Nifty is moving in the range of 9800 to 11500 for longer-term.
Leading world markets are trading close to all time high levels.

Leaders: Infosys, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Steel, L&T, HUL, Wipro.
Laggards: Lupin, Bosch, ITC, Tata Motors. 
• Bullish Sectors: IT, Metal, FMCG.
• Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceutical, PSU.

Stocks with stable up move over longer period 
• HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, IndusInd Bank.

S&P BSE Sensex 30

20 December 2017
Sensex is moving above 20, 50, 100, 150 and 200 day moving average.
Sensex from a high of 21216 had moved below to a low of 7697 in 2008. 
Sensex moved up to 21108 in 2010 and corrected to 15135 in Dec 2011. 
Sensex hit a new peak of 30024 in Mar 2015 and corrected to touch a low of 22494 in Feb 2016.
Sensex like other leading world market index made record high of 33956 in Dec 2017.
Sensex is moving in a band of 31000 to 35000.

Market movement will depend on FII inflow and strength of rupee against the dollar.
Drop in crude oil price will benefit India.
There is political stability after many years.
Hence long term trend of the market is up.
However short term correction and consolidation can happen on the way up.

Leaders: Maruti Suzuki India, Mahindra & Mahindra, HUnilever, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank.
Laggards: Tata Motors, Sun Pharmaceutical, ITC, Coal India.
• Bullish Sectors: Automobile, MNC, Private Banks.
• Bearish Sector: Pharmaceuticals.

Nifty Midcap 50

15 December 2017
Nifty Midcap 50 Index is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Midcap stocks 32 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 64% of Nifty Midcap stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
At present midcap index is trading close to all-time high levels.

Leaders: MindTree, PC Jeweller, TVS Motor Company, Dalmia Bharat, Biocon, Tata Global Beverages, Voltas. 
Laggards: IDFC Bank, Reliance Communications, Reliance Power, Strides Shasun.

NSE Nifty Next 50 (Nifty Junior) 

9 October 2017
Nifty Next Index is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Junior stocks 34 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 68% of Nifty Next stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
Leaders: Avenue Supermarts, Procter & Gamble Hygiene, Ashok Leyland, Britannia Industries, Petronet LNG.
Laggards: GlaxoSmithKline Consumer, Bank of Baroda, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma.
Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Automobile, Gas Companies. 
Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceuticals, PSU Banks.

 


 

• Triggers for the market • 

• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary  market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget

General election results
Markets liked the General election results in 2009 and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Markets liked the General election results of 2014 and Sensex jumped up by 1500 points. The markets have moved into a new bull orbit.

Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
For 2014 monsoon is expected to be below normal.
Watch out for food inflation, general inflation and interest rate.

South west monsoon rainfall as % of long period average

 2007     106
 2008       98
 2009       78
 2010     102
 2011     101

 2012   

   92
 2013     106
 2014   

   95 forecast

[Source: dna dated 25 April 2014]