Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India

Relative performance of Market Indices

 

NSE Nifty 50

15 September 2017
Nifty is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Nifty is moving in the range of 9500 to 10500 for longer-term.
Leading world markets are trading close to all time high levels.

Leaders: Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, Hindalco Industries, Yes Bank, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever. 
Laggards: Lupin, Tata Motors, Bank of Baroda, Infosys, ONGC. 
• Bullish Sectors: Metal, Private Bank, Automobile.
• Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceutical, IT, PSU.

BSE S&P Sensex 30

4 August 2017
Sensex is moving above 20, 50, 100, 150 and 200 day moving average.
Sensex from a high of 21216 had moved below to a low of 7697 in 2008. 
Sensex moved up to 21108 in 2010 and corrected to 15135 in Dec 2011. 
Sensex hit a new peak of 30024 in Mar 2015 and corrected to touch a low of 22494 in Feb 2016.
Sensex like other leading world market index made record high of 32686 in Aug 2017.
Sensex is moving in a band of 30000 to 33000.

Market movement will depend on FII inflow and strength of rupee against the dollar.
Drop in crude oil price will benefit India.
There is political stability after many years.
Hence long term trend of the market is up.
However short term correction and consolidation can happen on the way up.

Leaders: Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC Bank, Power Grid Corporation, NTPC, Adani Ports.
Laggards: Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Coal India, Sun Pharmaceutical, Lupin.
• Bullish Sectors: Oil & Gas, FMCG, Banking & Finance, Energy.
• Bearish Sector: Pharmaceuticals.

Nifty Midcap 50

21 July 2017
Nifty Midcap Index is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Midcap stocks 36 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 72% of Nifty Midcap stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
At present midcap index is almost as strong as the Sensex and Nifty.

Leaders: Godrej Industries, Biocon, Indraprastha Gas, Jindal Steel, Jubilant Food, Tata Global, L&T Finance. 
Laggards: Ajanta Pharma, Amara Raja Batteries, Reliance Communications, IDBI Bank.

NSE Nifty Next 50 (Nifty Junior) 

14 July 2017
Nifty Next Index is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Junior stocks 41 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 82% of Nifty Next stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
Leaders: Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Finance, United Spirits, Hindustan Petroleum, JSW Steel, Godrej Consumer, Marico.
Laggards: Oil India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Divi's Laboratories.
Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Automobile, Finance, Metals. 
Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceuticals, Upstream Oil.

 


 

• Triggers for the market • 

• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary  market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget

General election results
Markets liked the General election results in 2009 and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Markets liked the General election results of 2014 and Sensex jumped up by 1500 points. The markets have moved into a new bull orbit.

Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
For 2014 monsoon is expected to be below normal.
Watch out for food inflation, general inflation and interest rate.

South west monsoon rainfall as % of long period average

 2007     106
 2008       98
 2009       78
 2010     102
 2011     101

 2012   

   92
 2013     106
 2014   

   95 forecast

[Source: dna dated 25 April 2014]