Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India

Relative performance of Market Indices

 

NSE Nifty Next 50 (Nifty Junior) 

14 July 2017
Nifty Next Index is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Junior stocks 41 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 82% of Nifty Next stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
Leaders: Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Finance, United Spirits, Hindustan Petroleum, JSW Steel, Godrej Consumer, Marico.
Laggards: Oil India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Divi's Laboratories.
Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Automobile, Finance, Metals. 
Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceuticals, Upstream Oil.

NSE Nifty 50

1 June 2017
Nifty is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average.
Nifty is moving in the band of 8800 to 10000 for longer-term.
Nifty is moving in the band of 9400 to 9800 for shorter period.
Leading world markets are trading close to all time high levels.

Leaders: Hindustan Unilever, HDFC Bank, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp.
Laggards: Coal India, Sun Pharmaceutical, Tech Mahindra, Lupin.
• Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Bank, Automobile.
• Bearish Sectors: Pharmaceutical, IT, Telecom.

BSE S&P Sensex 30

9 May 2017
Sensex is moving above 50, 100, 150 and 200 day moving average.
Sensex from a high of 21216 had moved below to a low of 7697 in 2008.
Sensex moved up to 21108 in 2010 and corrected to 15135 in Dec 2011.
Sensex hit a new peak of 30024 in Mar 2015 and corrected to touch a low of 22494 in Feb 2016.
Sensex like other leading world index could make a record high 30184 in Apr 2017.
Sensex is moving in a band of 28500 to 31500.

Market movement will depend on FII inflow and strength of rupee against the dollar.
Drop in crude oil price will benefit India.
There is political stability after many years.
Hence long term trend of the market is up.
However short term market is in overbought condition.

Leaders: GAIL, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank, HDFC, State Bank of India, Power Grid, ITC.
Laggards: Wipro, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Lupin, Sun Pharmaceutical, Coal Indi
• Bullish Sectors: Oil & Gas, Automobile, Banking & Finance, Energy.
• Bearish Sector: Information Technology, Pharmaceuticals.

Nifty Midcap 50

10 March 2017
Nifty Midcap Index is moving above 50, 100 and 200 day moving average.
Out of 50 Nifty Midcap stocks 38 are trading above 200-dma.
That means 76% of Nifty Midcap stocks are trading above 200-dma.
At present midcap index is outperforming the Sensex and Nifty.

Leaders: Sun TV Network, L&T Finance, Exide, Indraprastha Gas, Tata Communications, CESC, TVS Motor.
Laggards: Wockhardt, Reliance Communications, JSW Energy, Bank of India.

 


 

• Triggers for the market • 

• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary  market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget

General election results
Markets liked the General election results in 2009 and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Markets liked the General election results of 2014 and Sensex jumped up by 1500 points. The markets have moved into a new bull orbit.

Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
For 2014 monsoon is expected to be below normal.
Watch out for food inflation, general inflation and interest rate.

South west monsoon rainfall as % of long period average

 2007     106
 2008       98
 2009       78
 2010     102
 2011     101

 2012   

   92
 2013     106
 2014   

   95 forecast

[Source: dna dated 25 April 2014]