Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India

Relative performance of Market Indices

 

Nifty Midcap 50

14 August 2018 
Nifty Midcap 50 Index is moving below 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Midcap stocks 20 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 40% of Nifty Midcap stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
At present some correction is seen in the midcap and small cap stocks.

Leaders: Page Industries, Balkrishna Industries, United Breweries, Exide Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Berger Paints, Dewan Housing Finance Corporation, Divi's Laboratories, RBL Bank. 
Laggards: Engineers India, Bank of India, Castrol India, Tata Power Company, PC Jeweller.

NSE Nifty Next 50 (Nifty Junior) 

3 August 2018 
Nifty Next Index is moving above 50 and 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Junior stocks 21 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 42% of Nifty Next stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
Leaders: Dabur India, Havells India, Avenue Supermarts (DMART), Britannia Industries, JSW Steel, Godrej Consumer Products, Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare, MRF, Marico.
Laggards: Idea Cellular, Punjab National Bank, ABB, InterGlobe Aviation, Siemens. 
Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Consumption. 
Bearish Sectors: Power.

NSE Nifty 50

20 July 2018
Nifty is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Nifty is moving in the range of 10500 to 11500 for longer-term.
Leading world markets are trading close to all time high levels.

Leaders: HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, TCS, Asian Paints, Yes Bank. 
Laggards: UPL, Power Grid Corporation of India,Tata Motors, Vedanta.
Bullish Sectors: IT, FMCG, Banking & Finance.
Bearish Sectors: Power, Metal.

Stocks with stable up move over longer period 
• HDFC Bank, HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, IndusInd Bank.

S&P BSE Sensex 30

6 July 2018
Sensex is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average.
Sensex from a high of 21216 had moved below to a low of 7697 in 2008. 
Sensex moved up to 21108 in 2010 and corrected to 15135 in Dec 2011. 
Sensex hit a new peak of 30024 in Mar 2015 and corrected to touch a low of 22494 in Feb 2016.
Sensex like other leading world market index made record high of 36444 in Jan 2018.
Sensex is moving in a band of 33000 to 36000.

Market movement will depend on FII inflow and strength of rupee against the dollar.
Increase in crude oil price will be a pain for India.
There is political stability after many years.
Hence long term trend of the market is up.
However short term correction and consolidation can happen on the way up.

Leaders: TCS, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank.
Laggards: NTPC, Vedanta, Power Grid Corporation of India, Tata Motors. 
Bullish Sectors: IT, FMCG, Private Banks.
Bearish Sector: Power, Metal.

Stocks with stable up move over longer period 
• HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, HUL, HDFC.

 


 

• Triggers for the market • 

• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary  market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget

General election results
Markets liked the General election results in 2009 and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Markets liked the General election results of 2014 and Sensex jumped up by 1500 points. The markets have moved into a new bull orbit.

Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
For 2014 monsoon is expected to be below normal.
Watch out for food inflation, general inflation and interest rate.

South west monsoon rainfall as % of long period average

 2007     106
 2008       98
 2009       78
 2010     102
 2011     101

 2012   

   92
 2013     106
 2014   

   95 forecast

[Source: dna dated 25 April 2014]