Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India

Relative performance of Market Indices

 

World leading markets

22 October 2018 
Top world leading market index outperformers: IBOVESPA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, Nikkei 225, S&P BSE Sensex, IPC Mexico, Nifty 50.
Top world leading market index underperformers: DAX Performance-Index, CAC 40, KOSPI Composite, Hang Seng.
USA, India, UK, France, Germany, Korea, Mexico and Brazil markets hit record high in the recent past.
At present, except IBOVESPA (Brazil) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) other leading markets in world are trading below 200-dma.

Nifty Midcap 50

12 October 2018 
Nifty Midcap 50 Index is moving below 200 day moving average. 
Out of 50 Nifty Midcap stocks 9 are trading above 200-dma. 
That means 18% of Nifty Midcap stocks are trading above 200-dma. 
At present some correction is seen in the large cap, midcap and small cap stocks.

Leaders: Divi's Laboratories, MindTree, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Page Industries, Jubilant Foodworks, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, United Breweries, Exide Industries, Balkrishna Industries. 
Laggards: NBCC (India), Bank of India, Ramco Cements, Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Punjab National Bank. 
Bullish Sectors: Pharma, FMCG, IT. 
Bearish Sectors: Infrastructure, PSU Bank.

Stocks with stable up move over longer period 
• Page Industries, Voltas, Tata Chemicals, Indraprastha Gas.

NSE Nifty Next 50 (Nifty Junior) 

1 October 2018 
Nifty Next Index is moving below 200 day moving average. 
Only one stock is trading close to year high. 
Out of 50 stocks 19 are trading close to year low. 
Leaders: Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma, Dabur India, Pidilite Industries, Britannia Industries, Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare, Godrej Consumer Products, Bosch, ACC.
Laggards: Bandhan Bank, Idea Cellular, InterGlobe Aviation, Aditya Birla Capital, New India Assurance Company. 
Bullish Sectors: Pharma, FMCG. 
Bearish Sectors: Finance, Aviation.

NSE Nifty 50

14 September 2018
Nifty is moving above 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. 
Nifty is moving in the range of 11000 to 12000 for longer-term.
Leading world markets are trading close to all time high levels.

Leaders: Cipla, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Sun Pharmaceutical, RIL, M&M.
Laggards: Bharti Infratel, HPCL, Zee Entertainment, IOC, Tata Motors.
Bullish Sectors: IT, Pharma.
Bearish Sectors: Telecom, OMC, Media.

Stocks with stable up move over longer period 
• HDFC, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank.

S&P BSE Sensex 30

7 September 2018
Sensex is moving above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving average.
Sensex from a high of 21216 had moved below to a low of 7697 in 2008. 
Sensex moved up to 21108 in 2010 and corrected to 15135 in Dec 2011. 
Sensex hit a new peak of 30024 in Mar 2015 and corrected to touch a low of 22494 in Feb 2016.
Sensex like other leading world market index made record high of 38989 in Aug 2018.
Sensex is moving in a band of 36000 to 40000.

Market movement will depend on FII inflow and strength of rupee against the dollar.
Increase in crude oil price will be a pain for India.
There is political stability after many years.
Hence long term trend of the market is up.
However short term correction and consolidation can happen on the way up.

Leaders: Infosys, TCS, Sun Pharmaceutical, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Wipro.
Laggards: Tata Motors, Vedanta, Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp. 
Bullish Sectors: IT, Pharma.
Bearish Sector: Auto, Metal.

 


 

• Triggers for the market • 

• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary  market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget

General election results
Markets liked the General election results in 2009 and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Markets liked the General election results of 2014 and Sensex jumped up by 1500 points. The markets have moved into a new bull orbit.

Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
For 2014 monsoon is expected to be below normal.
Watch out for food inflation, general inflation and interest rate.

South west monsoon rainfall as % of long period average

 2007     106
 2008       98
 2009       78
 2010     102
 2011     101

 2012   

   92
 2013     106
 2014   

   95 forecast

[Source: dna dated 25 April 2014]  
 2018

   91