Summary
Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India
NSE Nifty Junior 50
30 January 2012
Nifty Junior is moving below 150 and 200 dma.
Nifty Junior is moving above 100 and 50 dma.
All 50 Nifty Junior stocks are not trading below 200 dma.
Leaders: UltraTech Cement, LIC Housing Finance, Idea Cellular, Bosch, Lupin.
Laggards: Union Bank, Adani Enterprises, Biocon, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Indian Overseas Bank.
NSE Nifty 50
26 October 2011
Nifty has moved below 200 dma for some time.
Nifty has also moved below 150 and 100 but above 50 dma.
All 50 Nifty stocks are not trading below 200 dma.
Nifty is moving in the band of 4500 to 5500 for long-term.
Nifty is moving in the band of 4800 to 5300 for shorter period.
Book profits if opportunities are available on up moves.
Look for long-term buying opportunities on corrections.
Leaders: ACC, Ambuja Cements, Grasim, Kotak Mahindra, BPCL, Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma.
Laggards: PNB, SAIL, Sesa Goa, Reliance Power, Reliance Capital.
• Bullish Sectors: Cement, Pharma.
• Bearish Sectors: Steel, Power, Finance.
BSE Sensex 30
16 September 2011
Sensex has moved below 200 dma for some time.
Sensex has also moved below 150, 100 and 50 dma.
All 30 Sensex stocks are not trading below 200 dma.
Sensex from all time high of 21216 had moved below the psychological support level of 10000 and touched a low of 7697. After moving above 10000 Sensex moved up to make double top at 21108 and corrected to 17295. Since then Sensex moved up to 19811 but moved to a low of 16432, unfortunately to make lower top and lower bottom.
Sensex is moving in a band of 18500 to 15500.
Near term Sensex is moving in the band of 17700 to 16000.
Further market movement will depend on FII inflow and liquidity in the system.
High inflation, interest rate and political developments can exert pressure on the markets.
News from USA and Europe are also not helping the markets either.
Outperformer: ITC, HUL, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank.
Underperformer: Tata Steel, Tata Power, Hindalco Industries, Tata Motors, BHEL.
• Bullish Sectors: FMCG, Telecom?
• Bearish Sectors: Realty, Metals.
Hold: Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel.
Long-term buy: RIL, NTPC.
• Triggers for the market •
27 October 2011
• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code 2012
• Inflation
• Corporate results
• RBI fiscal policy
• Outflow to primary market
• Interest rate
• Crude oil price
• Union Budget
General election results
Markets liked the General election results and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
New Issues
With markets taking a beating IPOs have come down.
Inflation
Even after constant action by RBI inflation remains a pain.
Monsoon
Good monsoon is important for agriculture.
Agriculture gives good support to the economy.
Food shortage and higher prices are major problems in many parts of the world.
Oil Economics and Politics
Decontrol of petrol and gas: good economics but bad politics
Decontrol of diesel and kerosene: good economics but poor politics
Increase in any petroleum product will be unpopular with the public.
Sector or Industry Trend
Power
3 February 2012
BSE Power Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 19 Power stocks 8 are trading above 200 day moving average.
So, 42% of Power stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformers: ABB, Power Grid, Reliance Infrastructure, Neyveli Lignite, Tata Power, NTPC.
Underperformers: Crompton Greaves, PTC India, NHPC, Suzlon Energy, BHEL.
Buy for long-term: NTPC
Capital Goods
25 January 2012
BSE Capital Goods Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 17 Capital Goods stocks 3 are trading above 200 day moving average.
So, 18% of Capital Goods stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformers: Havells, ABB, Praj Industries, SKF India.
Underperformers: Alstom Projects,Lakshmi Machine Works, AIA Engineering, Areva, Everest Kanto.
Consumer Durables
21 October 2011
BSE Consumer Durables Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 10 Consumer Durables stocks 5 are trading above 200 day moving average.
That is 50% of Consumer Durables stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Stocks dealing in gold are leading the pack.
Some Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s favourite stocks are also doing well.
Outperformers: Gitanjali Gems, Titan Industries, Rajesh Exports, VIP Industries, TTK Prestige.
Underperformers: Voltas, Blue Star.
Automobile
14 October 2011
BSE Automobile Sector Index is trading just below 200 day moving average.
Out of 10 Auto stocks 3 are trading above 200 day moving average.
That means 30% of Automobile stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformers: M&M, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Bosch, TVS Motor, MRF.
Underperformers: Maruti Suzuki, Escorts, Tata Motors, Cummins India.
Maruti Suzuki India: pain to continue for some time more.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods
23 September 2011
BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 10 BSE FMCG Index stocks 6 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 6 NSE FMCG Index stocks 5 are trading above 200 day moving average.
So, 69% of FMCG stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
FMCG is a defensive sector.
Outperformers: Nestle, Colgate, Jubilant Food, HUL, Britannia, ITC, Gillette.
Underperformers: Tata Global Beverages, Pantaloon Retail, United Spirits.
Health Care or Pharmaceutical
2 September 2011
BSE Health Care Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
29% of Pharmaceutical stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Pharma being a defensive sector outperforms other sectors in a falling market.
Outperformers: Novartis, Wyeth, Aventis Pharma, Sun Pharmaceutical, Pfizer, Apollo Hosp.
Underperformers: Strides Arcolab, Cipla, Orchid Chemicals, Aurobindo Pharma.
Metal
BSE Metal Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 13 Metal stocks 5 are trading above 200 day moving average.
So, 38% of Metal stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Gold, silver and copper had a good run for quite some time.
Outperformer: National Aluminium, Hindustan Zinc, Bhushan Steel, Hindalco Industries.
Underperformer: Welspun Corp, Sesa Goa, Jai Corp, Steel Authority of India.
Buy for long-term: NMDC
Oil & Gas
BSE Oil & Gas Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 9 Oil & Gas stocks 2 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 22% of Oil & Gas stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Crude oil price from a low of $34 per barrel has moved around $100.
Hopes of deregulation of oil sector pushed the share price of oil marketing companies (OMC) up.
The hopes hit roadblocks as oil price and inflation moved up.
Leaders: Cairn India, Petronet LNG, Reliance Industries, GAIL India.
Laggards: Essar Oil, Aban Offshore, Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals, Hindustan Petroleum.
Buy for long-term: Reliance Industries
Public Sector Undertakings
BSE PSU Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 60 PSU Index stocks 7 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 11% of PSU stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Many IPOs and FPOs are in the pipeline.
Outperformer: National Aluminium, IOB, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Petronet, BOI, Coal India.
Underperformer: BEML, NHPC, Neyveli, Hindustan Petroleum, Shipping Corp, Chennai Petro, MMTC.
• Bullish Sectors: Bank
• Bearish Sectors: Power, Oil.
PSU - Banks
Out of 24 BSE PSU Bank Index stocks 5 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 20% of PSU Bank stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Banking Sector is sensitive to inflation and interest rate.
Leaders: BOB, CANBK, BANKINDIA, IOB, SYNDIBANK.
Laggards: MAHABANK, INDIANBK, ORIENTBANK.
PSU - Metal & Mining
Out of 8 BSE PSU Metal & Mining Index stocks, 2 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 25% of PSU Metal stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformer: Gujarat Mineral Development Corpn., Coal India.
Underperformer: Steel Authority of India, National Aluminium Co.
Buy for long-term: NMDC
PSU - Oil & Gas
Out of 8 BSE PSU Oil & Gas Index stocks three are trading above 200 day moving average.
So, 43% of stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Decontrol of petrol price has given boost to oil marketing companies.
Fall in crude oil price also is positive for OMCs.
Leaders: Petronet, BPCL, Hindpetro, OIL.
Laggards: MRPL, Chennpetro.
PSU - Other Sectors
Out of 20 PSU Other Sectors Index stocks none is trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformer: Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corporation.
Underperformer: NEYVELI, MTNL, NHPC, BEML.
Buy for long-term: Shipping Corporation of India
Information Technology - NSE
CNX Information Technology Sectors Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 20 IT stocks 8 are trading above 200 day moving average.
That means 40% of IT Sectors stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Outperformer: Core Projects and Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies.
Underperformer: Financial Technologies, MindTree, Mphasis.
Information Technology
BSE Information Technology Sectors Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 10 IT stocks only Core Projects is trading above 200 day moving average.
That means 10% of IT Sectors stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Rupee against US dollar from below 40 moved close to 52 is now around 46.
This can have positive impact for the IT Sectors.
Unique Identification Project will give boost to IT Sector.
US curbs on H-1B and L-1 visa can affect IT Sector.
Further, hike in visa fees will also impact IT firms.
US downgrade has already impacted the IT sector.
Outperformers: Core Projects and Technologies, Hexaware Technologies, Aptech.
Underperformers: Infosys Technologies, Wipro, Mphasis, Patni Computer.
Bank
BSE Bank Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
NSE Bank Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 14 BSE Bank Sector Index stocks only HDFC Bank is trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 7% of Bank stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Bank Sector is sensitive to inflation and interest rate.
Outperformers: HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, Indus Ind Bank.
Underperformers: Karnataka Bank, ICICI Bank, IOB, Bank of India.
Realty
BSE Realty Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 15 Realty stocks only one is trading above 200 day moving average.
So, only 7% of Realty stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
NSE Realty Index is also trading below 200 day moving average.
Realty is the weakest sector.
This sector is sensitive to interest rate.
Leaders: Omaxe, Phoenix Mill, Sobha Developers, DLF.
Laggards: Ackruti City, Orbit Corporation, Sunteck Realty, D B Realty.
TECk – Telecom
BSE TECk Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Thanks to IT and Media sectors.
As competition increases in the telecom space, stocks in this sector have taken a beating; many stocks have moved below 200-day moving average.
Only 25% of telecom stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Leaders: GTL
Laggards: Reliance Communications, Tata Teleservices, Tata Communications
Buy for long-term: Bharti Airtel
