Summary
Technical Analysis of Stock Market Trend in India
BSE Sensex 30
Sensex after spending some time below 200 dma has moved above 200 dma.
Sensex has moved above 150, 100 and 50 dma also.
All 30 Sensex stocks are not trading above 200 dma.
Sensex from all time high of 21206 had moved below the psychological support level of 10000 and touched a low of 7697. After moving above 10000 Sensex made a high of 18047, corrected to 15960 and move up to 18475.
Sensex is moving in a band of 16200 and 18500.
Near term Sensex is moving in the band of 17200 to 18500.
Euro zone problems have put pressure on the world markets.
Every pullback has been used as selling opportunity.
Indian markets are moving sidewise for the past many months.
Sensex making higher tops and higher bottoms is positive for the bulls.
However breakout for higher levels could not happen.
Sensex will face resistance at 18500 levels.
Sensex will get support at 17200 levels.
Take home some profits at higher levels.
Correction to continue……
Leaders: ITC, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Hero Honda.
Laggards: Bharti Airtel, Sterlite, DLF, Tata Steel.
Hold: Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel.
To see in detail visit:
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Market-Index/bse-sensex.html
NSE Nifty 50
Nifty has moved above 200 dma.
Nifty has moved above 150, 100 and 50 dma also.
All 50 Nifty stocks are not trading above 200 dma.
Nifty is moving in the band of 4900 to 5550 for long-term.
Nifty is moving in the band of 5200 to 5550 for shorter period.
Nifty faces resistance in the upper band and support in the lower band.
Nifty will face resistance at 5550.
Nifty will find support at 5200.
Book profits at higher levels.
Correction to continue……
Leaders: ITC, GAIL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, PNB, Infosys, Hero Honda.
Laggards: Bharti Airtel, Sterlite, DLF, Tata Steel, Suzlon Energy, Unitech.
To see in detail visit:
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Market-Index/nse-nifty.html
NSE Nifty Junior 50
Nifty Junior is moving above 200 dma.
Nifty Junior is moving above 150, 100 and 50 dma also.
The mid-cap and small-cap stocks are performing better than large-cap stocks.
Hence, Nifty Junior is outperforming Sensex and Nifty.
All 50 Nifty Junior stocks are not trading above 200 dma.
Leaders: Lupin, Glaxo Pharma, Asian Paints, HPCL, Colgate, Cummins, Dr. Reddy, Bajaj Auto.
Laggards: Punj Lloyd, Tech Mahindra, TTML, Indiabulls Real Estate, HDIL.
Bullish Sectors: Pharmaceuticals, FMCG, Automobile.
Bearish Sectors: Telecom, Realty.
To see in detail visit:
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Market-Index/nse-nifty-junior.html
• Triggers for the market •
• FII inflow
• Liquidity in the system
• New tax code 2011
• Higher advance tax paid by companies
• Dubai debt crisis fears fade
• Inflation up
• Euro financial crisis
• Monsoon
• Q1 results
• RBI fiscal policy
General election results
Markets liked the General election results and Sensex jumped up by 2000 points. Markets also hit the upper circuit for the first time.
Union Budget
Union budget was below market expectations and markets tanked last year. This year it was better than expected and bears were forced to cover their short positions. FIIs from sellers turned buyers and downward pressure on the market has receded.
New Issues
With markets in buoyant condition, new issues are getting decent response. Many more are in the pipe-line and this can put some pressure in the secondary markets.
Monsoon
Last year poor rainfall in different parts of India had put lots of pressure on the price of agricultural commodities. This year the prediction of normal monsoon is welcome news.
Inflation
After spending sometime in the negative territory, inflation has moved to the positive side and moving up fast.
Oil Economics and Politics
Decontrol of petrol and gas: good economics and good politics
Decontrol of diesel and kerosene: good economics but poor politics
The acid test for the decontrol will be when oil hits $100.
Sector or Industry Trend
Fast Moving Consumer Goods
BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Except HUL, all the other 11 BSE FMCG Index stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
All NSE FMCG Index stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
94% of FMCG stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
FMCG is a defensive sector.
Leaders: Emami, Gillette India, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, Dabur India.
Laggards: Hindustan Unilever, United Spirits.
Buy for long-term: Hindustan Unilever
Health Care or Pharmaceutical
BSE Health Care Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
94% of Pharmaceutical stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Pharma is a defensive sector; outperforms other sectors in a falling market.
Leaders: Glaxo, Lupin, Dr.Reddy, Piramal Health, Aventis, Pfizer, Apollo Hosp., Novartis.
Laggards: Wockhardt, Orchid Chemicals, Dishman Pharma, Bilcare.
Automobile
BSE Automobile Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 12 Auto stocks 10 are trading above 200 day moving average.
83% of Automobile stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Leaders: Cummins India, Bajaj Auto, MRF.
Laggards: Maruti Suzuki India, Amtek Auto.
Maruti Suzuki India: pain to continue for some time more.
Bank
BSE Bank Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
NSE Bank Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 18 Bank stocks 14 are trading above 200 day moving average.
77% of Bank stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Bank Sector is sensitive to inflation and interest rate.
Correction is expected for some time more.
Leaders: Bank of Baroda, Indus Ind Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Axis Bank.
Laggards: Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Karnataka Bank.
Consumer Durables
BSE Consumer Durables Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 8 Consumer Durables stocks 2 are not trading above 200 day moving average.
75% of Consumer Durables stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Some correction is expected in the coming days.
Leaders: Titan Industries, Rajesh Exports, Bajaj Electricals.
Laggards: Videocon Industries, Gitanjali Gems.
Public Sector Undertakings
BSE PSU Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 47 PSU Index stocks 39 are trading above 200 day moving average.
With many IPOs and FPOs in the pipeline, this group of stocks should do well.
Leaders: HPCL, Allahabad Bank, UCO Bank, OBC, Vijaya Bank, BOI, SBI, REC.
Laggards: NMDC, NTPC, MTNL, SAIL, Power Grid, BEL, NALCO, BEML.
• Outperforming Sectors: Bank, OMC.
• Underperforming Sectors: Metal, Telecom.
PSU - Banks
All the 20 PSU Bank Index stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Recently midcap and small cap banks are performing better than large cap banks.
Leaders: UCO Bank, Indian Bank, Vijaya Bank, Canara Bank, Corporation Bank, Dena Bank.
Laggards: IDBI Bank, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank.
Details at
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Sector-Index/bse-psu-banks.html
PSU - Oil & Gas
Out of 7 PSU Oil & Gas Index stocks 6 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Decontrol of petrol price has given boost to oil marketing companies.
Upstream companies continue to suffer from subsidy burden.
Leaders: HPCL, BPCL, IOC, ONGC.
Laggards: MRPL, Chennai Petroleum.
Details at
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Sector-Index/bse-psu-oil-and-gas.html
PSU - Other Sectors
Out of 20 PSU Other Sectors Index stocks 13 are trading above 200 day moving average.
So 65% of PSU Other Sectors stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Leaders: REC, PFC, CONCOR, BHEL, RCF.
Laggards: NMDC, Power Grid Corporation, NTPC, MTNL.
Buy for long-term: NMDC
Details at
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Sector-Index/bse-psu-other-sectors.html
Information Technology
BSE Information Technology Sectors Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
NSE Information Technology Index Sectors is trading above 200 day moving average.
Out of 22 IT stocks 9 are trading above 200 day moving average.
That means only 40% of IT Sectors stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Correction can continue for some time more.
Rupee against US dollar from below 40 moved close to 52 is now around 47.
This will have positive impact for the IT Sectors.
Unique Identification Project will give boost to IT Sector.
US curbs on H-1B and L-1 visa can affect IT Sector.
Further, hike in visa fees will also impact IT firms.
Leaders: TCS, CMC, HCLTECH, COREPROTE, GTL, INFOSYS.
Laggards: TechM, EDUCOMP, MINDTREE, FSL, HEXAWARE, HCL-INSYS, MOSERBAER, APTECHT.
Details at
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Sector-Index/information-technology.html
Metal
BSE Metal Sector Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
Out of 12 Metal stocks 4 are trading above 200 day moving average.
Only 33% of Metal stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Economic pressure in USA, Europe and China put pressure on the demand and price of metals.
Gold had a good run for quite some time looks subdued for now.
Leaders: National Aluminium, JSW Steel, Jai Corp, Jindal Saw.
Laggards: Sterlite Industries, NMDC, Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc.
Buy for long-term: NMDC
Details at
http://www.tech-freaks.in/Stock-Market/Sector-Index/metal.html
Capital Goods
Capital Goods Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
73% of Capital Goods stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Leaders: Bharat Electronics, Siemens, Havells India
Laggards: Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Punj Lloyd, Everest Kanto Cylinder
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
All 11 Oil & Gas stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Crude oil price from a low of $34 per barrel has moved above $80.
Hopes of deregulation of oil sector pushed the share price of oil marketing companies (OMC) up. As hopes turned to disappointment share price turned south.
Power
BSE Power Sector Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
58% of Realty stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Power Sector index is moving just above 200 dma for the last two months. Any weakness in this sector can push the index below 200 dma.
Spate of IPOs and FPOs have done some damage to this sector.
Leaders: Siemens, Bharat Heavy Electricals, ABB
Laggards: GVK Power & Infrastructure, Suzlon Energy, Reliance Infrastructure
Realty
BSE Realty Index is trading below 200 day moving average.
50% of Realty stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Realty is the weakest sector.
This sector is sensitive to interest rate.
Large cap shares have taken the largest hit.
The realty stock of sensex and nifty may miss the place if the underperformance continues.
Leaders: Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Sobha Developers
Laggards: Unitech, DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate
TECk – Telecom
BSE TECk Index is trading above 200 day moving average.
Thanks to IT and Media sectors.
As competition increases in the telecom space, stocks in this sector have taken a beating; many stocks have moved below 200-day moving average.
Only 25% of telecom stocks are trading above 200 day moving average.
Leaders: GTL
Laggards: Reliance Communications, Tata Teleservices, Tata Communications
Buy for long-term: Bharti Airtel
